My 2018 Predictions for the Miles and Points World

Predictions has been a more recent (2017, 2016) tradition for me, but I am starting to get the hang of it. This idea started when I started getting more questions about what I think will happen. So I mine as well put all my ideas into one post, put myself to the test to see how I do by the end of the year.

Let’s start with a recap on how I did last year before we embark on the new year.

Recap of 2017

Last year, I scored 0.5/3, but this year, I had some improvement!

• Devaluations With Air Miles – So the benchmark for this is that if you redeem your Air Miles in the form of cash, 95 miles gets you $10 to use at partner stores. So when redeeming for merchandise, you want to keep this cash ratio in mind as a comparison of what your miles can we worth. The good news is that the 95:$10 ratio has remained the same. So even if some merchandise may seem to cost more, you always have to option of earning your miles to redeem for cash instead. I am more than happy to give myself a 0/1 on this prediction. WRONG.

• Another Increase in the Cash Back Credit Card Market – A few new credit cards were introduced to the market, including: Meridian Visa Infinite Cash Back Card, TD Cash Back Visa Infinite Card, RBC Cash Back Preferred World Elite MasterCard. Whether they are good cards or not, they definitely add to the cash back competition, which is always a plus. This puts me at 1/2. CORRECT.

• One company will step out of the shadows – If you look at my most recent credit card company rankings, the one company that had the most significant increase was HSBC, due to its new HSBC Premier World Elite MasterCard. However, I personally was expecting a bigger impact on the market, so I will give myself half a mark, which puts me at 1.5/3. HALF.

Predictions for 2018

Let’s try again this year!

1) New Co-Branded Airline (Frequent Flyer) Credit Card

I think that enough work is being done in the background for us to finally get an announcement in 2018. Maybe Porter? Maybe one of the U.S. based airlines? Maybe someone else? Either way, I am expecting to see a new partnership with a frequent flyer program this year.

I will exclude any Air Canada and Marriott Rewards announcement from this prediction. Air Canada already stills has partnerships through Aeroplan until 2020. Furthermore, Chase Marriott cardholders are still grandfathered, so even if they announce a new partnership, it will not be considered a new one for this prediction.

For my to get this prediction correct, it has to be a brand new partnership. I will make a separate Marriott Rewards prediction below.

2) American Express will offer a Marriott Rewards Co-Branded Card

I think that American Express is the leading candidate to land a co-branded card with Marriott Rewards, mainly because they already offer the SPG card, as well as having a partnership with American Express in the U.S. I believe that 2018 will be the year that we hear an announcement for Marriott Rewards’ new credit card partnership.

Ideally, however unlikely in Canada, more than one company will be offering a co-branded Marriott Rewards card.

3) More Credit Cards that Waive Foreign Transaction Fees

We the new Chase credit cards being discontinued this past year, I think someone will step up to waive foreign transaction fee purchases. Currently, only the HSBC credit card and Home Trust has this offer.

Keep in mind that whoever waives the foreign transaction fees will still have to compete with the two Rogers Bank credit cards that give 4% cash back on foreign purchases, even though they charge the standard 2.5% fee.