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My 2023 Predictions for the Miles and Points World

Back in 2016, I began a tradition of trying to predict the travel / rewards market in Canada. The first year was rough, but it got better over the years and recently levelling off. How did it go in 2022?

Below are my previous scores:

Recap of 2022

Let’s see how I did in 2022:

  • Non-Travel Related Program Takes a Giant Leap. With Scene+ taking such a major leap in 2021, I thought another program would step up to compete with them in a major way. Since that did not happen, the miles and points world in Canada is starting to be very top heavy. The strong companies are doing well, but the ones at the bottom may struggle. Hopefully a company will step up eventually. 0/1
  • A New High End (Premium) Credit Card. I might have been a bit a bit too ambitious on this one. I thought that since most major banks already have at least one premium card for big spenders that someone else jump in to compete. For example, maybe a TD Rewards version since all the other majors banks have a card tied to their internal loyalty program. Or perhaps one of the smaller banks, like National Bank would step up. Alternatively, I thought maybe there would be a major revamp of an existing card, which I could have gotten half a point for. 0/1
  • Cash Back Crazy. The momentum that was created in 2021 definitely carried over into 2022 to the point that 10%+ cash back promotional offers are the new norm for a wide range of financial institutions. Furthermore, not only did Tangerine continue its 15% sign up cash back offer throughout most of the year, we saw the likes of HSBC upping their game into the 10%+ territory. 1/1.

Overall, I had a rough outing in 2022, finishing the year at 1/3. Maybe I was too aggressive last year. I would love to be right, but I do not want to make it that easy on myself either!

Predictions for 2023

Let’s try again this year. Let’s go for a more balanced approach this time by going for something more realistic. Keep in mind that I only focus on positive predictions. I rather not spend the year hoping that something bad will happen.

1) More multiplier bonus offers

With inflation kicking into the high gear and with so many credit cards in the Canadian market nowadays, I think most credit card companies are going to focus on internally improving their product. One of the things that should be improved over time is multiplier bonuses for spending on specific categories.

2) Significant merger

I see a lot of small companies hanging around. But for them to grow, it will be difficult to do it organically, so they may need to lock arms with another company. Therefore, I suspect that two major Canadian companies are going to pull theirs resources together. Some examples include:

3) More competition in the airline industry

With Flair Airlines and Porter Airlines stepping up in a big way (relatively speaking for a Canadian) in 2022 by expanding their services, now we see if their ideas are going to make a dent on the industry. Are they really going to compete with the big boys, or are they going to settle into a comfort zone? Is another company also going to step up to compete?

What are your predictions for 2023? Please let us know in the comment section below!

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