Back in 2016, I began a tradition of trying to predict the travel / rewards market in Canada. The first year was rough, but it got better over the years and recently dropping back down. How did it go in 2023? I wrote out my predictions on January 2, 2023.
Below are my previous scores:
Recap of 2023
Let’s see how I did in 2023:
- More multiplier bonus offers – The only significant multiplier bonus increase this year was the Rogers Bank 3% cash back on Rogers products. For a no annual fee credit card, I find this fairly significant. However, I would not be able to get full grades on this one. 0.5/1
- Significant merger – BMO purchased Air Miles, RBC purchased HSBC. WestJet purchased Sunwing. I would say this was a fairly successful prediction, albeit probably not a difficult one to begin with for miles and points enthusiasts. 1/1
- More competition in the airline industry – While the two more established airlines, Air Canada and WestJet are the standard, this prediction was more geared towards smaller airlines to compete with these two. Flair Airlines, Lynx Air and Porter Airlines had major expansions to their service across the continent, automatically increasing the Canadian airline competition. 1/1
Overall, it was a decent year for me, granted my prediction were probably slightly more conservative, which had a higher chance of coming true. Either way, I finished the year at 2.5/3, which turned out to be the best one yet!
Predictions for 2024
Let’s try again this year. Since I did well in 2023, I will go bolder in 2024. That being said, I do focus on positive changes to the industry, rather than negative ones, because I rather not spend the year hoping for something bad to happen.
1) Major shift in our credit card company rankings
A few days ago, we published our recent rankings of the different credit card companies in Canada. Both Brim Financial and Neo Financial already made significant jumps in 2023. So now I am looking for at least one other company to make such a jump (at least 5 spots).
2) Bold change to a major Canadian loyalty program
3) A new co-branded airline or hotel credit card
The newest one we really saw was Brim Financial with Air France. Technically Neo Financial introduced the Cathay Pacific co-branded card, but I consider that more of a move from RBC to NEO. The real question is, who is next?
What are your predictions for 2024? Please let us know in the comment section below!